Mader & Shannon Wealth Management's independence means we are free to focus solely on the needs and objectives of our clients.
We are committed to providing value to our clients and have structured our entire organization around this concept.
We define value in portfolio management as achieving yield and growth objectives with as little risk as possible while minimizing transaction costs and taxes. Active Money Management - The goal of active money management is to protect the client from major downtrends resulting from the collapse of an overvalued market, and still allow the investor the opportunity to participate fully in the growth in value and income that the equity markets have historically provided.
Retaining an independent financial professional is as important for planning as it is for portfolio management. Mader Shannon has no commitment to any product or service that will in any way conflict with the best interests of our clients. Our services are designed to offer objective advice and set reasonable expectations. We take the time to educate clients on suitable financial solutions, carefully exploring risk and performance expectations.
At Kansas City's Mader & Shannon we define value in portfolio management as achieving yield and growth objectives with as little risk as possible while minimizing transaction costs and taxes.
The goal of active portfolio management is to protect the client from major downtrends resulting from the collapse of an overvalued market, and still allow the investor the opportunity to participate fully in the growth in value and income that the equity markets have historically provided.
Active Money Management
History demonstrates that although stock prices move erratically on an hourly, daily, or weekly basis, market averages experience long term trends with respect to intrinsic value. Understanding the state of the markets with respect to this persistent trend of overvaluation or undervaluation is the primary key to implementing an effective active management investment strategy.
The basic strategy of active money management is to reduce the risk associated with bull markets during periods of overvaluation, and to beopportunistic during bear markets that persist during periods of undervaluation. This combination enables clients to fully participate in the long-term capital growth the markets have historically provided.
Active portfolio management does not conflict with the concepts of long term investing. Most of our clients are in fact long term investors dependent on income and growth from their portfolios.
Take a tour of our Trading Room
Mader & Shannon Offers 529 College Savings Plan Management Through TDAmeritrade
Mader & Shannon manages 529 College Savings plans on the TDAmeritrade platform. The plans are sponsored by the State of Nebraska and Union Bank & Trust Company serves as the Program Manager.
The benefits for our clients are as follows:
Mader & Shannon can continuously monitor the plans and make allocation changes periodically through primarily Vanguard funds (currently the IRS restricts changes to twice a year).
Tax parity laws in some states (including Missouri and Kansas) make the state tax deductions available even though the plan is in Nebraska.
Eligibility for tax-free withdrawals for qualified higher-education expenses applies to any nationally accredited school, not just those in Nebraska.
Contact Bret Guillaume at 816.751.0575 or email@example.com to open an account or transfer an existing 529 balance. For more information on College Savings Plans visit www.collegesavings.org
At Mader and Shannon, we believe that an effectively implemented active management strategy can help clients achieve reliable upside participation while also providing excellent downside protection. By dampening the volatile swings in the market, our strategy seeks to provide both a sustainable long-term rate of return as well as peace of mind to our clients.
Strategy & Daily Routine
We take a top-down approach to asset allocation and a bottom-up approach to security selection. We monitor global economic indicators like GDP, employment, wage growth and a host of survey data to determine overall economic health. Interest rates, currency dynamics, and inflation are direct inputs to the valuation of markets, and must be incorporated to a comprehensive global evaluation. Finally, an appraisal of the fundamental health of broad indices like the S&P 500 aids in our assessment about the overvalued or undervalued state of markets.
From that baseline, we select securities that we believe provide the best risk-reward opportunity in the current economic environment. We seek to invest in companies that have good fundamental prospects and are, in our opinion, undervalued. Company-level research centers around earnings and revenue growth, valuation multiples, cash flows, and balance sheet health. Our investment universe consists only of highly liquid, exchange-traded securities.
Because we are an active manager, our outlook and positioning are flexible and dynamic. The only responsible way to make investment decisions is to base them on the most up-to-date and accurate information available. Our task each day is to gather market-related news and data, use it to develop an investment thesis, and then decide whether our current portfolio is ideally suited to perform in a given market environment. Such a task requires discipline, and over the years we’ve developed a daily routine that helps us accumulate and digest an unrelenting supply of information.
The Kansas City Trading Room opens an hour and a half before the US exchanges each morning. By that time, we are already up to date on the developments in Asian markets overnight, how the European markets are trading, and where the U.S. indices are expected to open.
Our first task on site is to download the previous day’s transaction and position data from our custodian. Once imported into our portfolio management accounting platform, we can generate performance and view holdings at the firm, strategy, and client levels. The integration of the accounting platform with our Bloomberg and Level-2 quoting systems allows us to aggregate our discretionary assets and constantly monitor them on a tick-by-tick basis, each and every day.
By 8:00, our portfolio management team has scanned our various research platforms for developments on current or prospective holdings. We then discuss our findings and develop our expectations for the coming trading session. If any team member believes a portfolio change is needed, that too is discussed, and before the opening bell rings, we have a plan for the day. From the opening bell, until the market closes at 3:00, the Trading Room constantly monitors holdings and the markets, regularly meeting throughout the day to discuss ideas and potential adjustments.
The Mader & Shannon trading room operation is an intense environment staffed by dedicated professionals who relish the daily opportunity to help clients achieve their financial goals.
As a wholly transparent money manager, we regularly host current and prospective clients in the trading room for market reviews and strategy orientations.
Simply put, wealth management is the process of a team of experts providing the highest quality of financial products and services to improve the financial health of client. In other words, it is the delivery of a full range of services tailored to solve for a specific financial objective or goal.
Wealth management incorporates a full suite of services that include financial planning, portfolio management, tax services, retirement planning, and estate planning. This provides a holistic approach allowing each scenario to be analyzed from every angle to achieve a successful outcome.
Typically, a wealth manager acts in a consultative manner and is focused solely on the client’s behalf. A wealth manager should be a fiduciary, working only with the client’s best interest in mind. Upholding the standard of a fiduciary in the financial service industry must include putting a clients’ interests before your own, acting in good faith and providing all relevant facts to clients, remaining free of conflicts of interest, and ensuring the accuracy of advice given.
Accomplished wealth managers should also hold credentials within the industry such as Certified Financial Planner (CFP®), Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), and Charter Financial Analyst (CFA®). The criteria that one must meet to hold these designations demonstrates not only their competency but their commitment in that respective field.
Here at Mader Shannon, we believe it is crucial to understand our clients and what is important to them. The services we provide are structured around our client’s investment objectives and tolerance for risk. We take the time to not only identify but understand our client’s aspirations. We then analyze the information and engage other professionals when appropriate to develop suitable recommendations. Our work is far more comprehensive than simply providing investment advice.
Our services are designed to offer objective advice and set reasonable expectations. We educate our clients on the suitability of our financial solutions, carefully exploring risk and performance expectations.
Typically, when a wealth manager acts in a consultative manner and is focused solely on the client’s behalf they are considered a fiduciary financial advisor. A fiduciary is a person or legal entity that has the power and responsibility of acting for another in situations requiring total trust, good faith and honesty.
Acting as a fiduciary has a very important meaning within the financial services industry. Much has been debated and written as the industry struggles with a self-imposed standard of care. It is often assumed that when choosing a financial advisor, they are all required to do what’s in the client’s best interest, but that is not the case. There are those that are held to a higher standard, and those that are not.
A fiduciary financial advisor is an investment professional who is licensed with the SEC or a state regulator and who are legally required to put their clients’ interests before their own. Having a fiduciary duty to your client should eliminate conflicts of interest and theoretically make a fiduciary’s advice more trustworthy. It is Mader Shannon’s obligation to uphold this standard as an SEC registered RIA (Registered Investment Advisor).
In addition to regulatory bodies requiring a higher standard of care, all the principals at Mader Shannon hold designations that, within their Code of Ethics, require that they adhere to or go beyond the fiduciary standard of care. Fiduciary financial advisor’s often hold credentials within the industry such as Certified Financial Planner (CFP®), Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), and Charter Financial Analyst (CFA®) all in which require that professionals act within this standard.
The luxury of being able to maintain our independence translates into a better relationship with our clients. Being able to think and act strategically in the interest of clients and not beholden to a parent company allows Mader Shannon to offer a more fiduciary centric service. Being a fiduciary financial advisor affords our clients a higher level of transparency in the way we provide our service, and perhaps more importantly, in how we are compensated for our service.
The following articles provide additional information on fiduciary standards within the industry as well as questions to ask and things to look for when choosing a financial advisor.
Retaining an independent financial professional is as important for planning as it is for asset management. Mader Shannon has no commitment to any product or service that will in any way conflict with the best interests of our clients.
Our services are designed to offer objective advice and set reasonable expectations. We take the time to educate clients on suitable financial solutions, carefully exploring risk and performance expectations
Our Planning Services
We provide the following services for helping clients achieve their financial goals:
Comprehensive Financial Planning
Complete Portfolio Analysis/Review
Company 401k Plans
529 and Education IRAs
Qualified Plan Rollovers
Retirement Cash Flow Planning and Projections
Why an Independent Agent?
There are two types of licensed agents in the life and health insurance industry: a “captive agent” representing one company and an “independent agent” representing multiple companies. Independent agents are also commonly referred to as “brokers”. Captive agents are limited to the products offered by their company while independent agents can select from countless products to fit a clients needs. Obviously, an independent agent is most often going to offer more suitable solutions.
In addition to a professionals independent status, it is important the representive be licensed to offer advice on securities, tax planning, estate planning, to tailor the most suitable solutions. This becomes important for two reasons. Any good financial plan starts with a careful assessment of a person’s objectives, income, assets, and potential inheritance. Unfortunately most insurance agents are not licensed, trained, or qualified to do financial planning, instead they are trained to be transaction driven for commissions rather than driven by the customer's best interest. Sales activity, with little regard for suitability and actual customer objectives, is counter productive and gives the industry a bad name.
A true independent financial planner must be licensed and have advanced training in many disciplines. Unfortunately, most insurance agents/financial advisors are only licensed to sell insurance, annuities, and mutual funds. Such limitation would make comprehensive planning difficult and expensive compared to a more comprehensive approach by an independent financial planner who works in a fiduciary capacity, or solely in the clients best interest. Such a professional is focused on plan design, researching suitable solutions, and performance, versus being product and transaction driven.
Mader & Shannon Wealth Management has always worked as a fiduciary putting our client’s needs first at all times.
Life Insurance As An Asset and/or Retirement Supplement?
In the current environment of low interest rates and bond yields one might ask, “How about life insurance as safe money investment?” For 99% of the 800 plus insurance companies a reliable investment return is not likely. However, a few top rated companies have produced internal rates of return (IRR) in the plus 2% range ten years out and plus 3% range 20 years out.
These returns won’t compete with the S&P 500, but keep in mind, there is a death benefit value permanently attached to this investment. Therefore, one can own a life insurance contract that is an asset as a conservative investment and at the same time provide a significant death benefit. In addition, properly managed, this asset can work favorably as a supplement to retirement.
To sustain a suitable outcome using this strategy working with a professional independent agent is a necessity for a number of reasons. Insurance policies are long term, complex legal contracts with both guaranteed and non-guaranteed provisions which you would want fully disclosed and understood. You must pick an insurance company that has the financial strength and history of supporting a contract of this type. In addition, you want to thoroughly understand the taxation of life insurance proceeds since the are different from other investments.
Like most successful investments, this investment requires management by a knowledgeable owner and a qualified professional. In this case, an insurance professional and a qualified investment advisor should be utilized for the life of the contract. To summarize, a well designed and managed life insurance contract, issued by a top rated company, can serve as key building block to a sound financial plan.
Types of Insurance
Term Insurance vs. Permanent
There are two basic forms of life insurance, term and permanent policies. Each one breaks down into subcategories based on different options designed to meet the needs of the consumer.
Term Life Insurance
As the name implies, term life insurance is issued for a specific period of time from one year to age 100. The purpose of term insurance is to cover a need within the issue period such as protecting an income stream while raising a family, or to pay off a mortgage or business debt in the event of an untimely death. Some term insurance policies offer a guaranteed conversion feature. This policy provision guarantees that the policy owner can convert the policy to a permanent insurance policy at the same underwriting status as assigned to the term policy. Consequently, term insurance can be utilized to fulfill a current insurance need at a low cost until the need for insurance diminishes or cash flow is available for permanent insurance.
Permanent Life Insurance
Permanent life insurance is designed and priced to pay a death benefit or be surrendered for the cash value when the insurance is no longer needed. There are three types of permanent life insurance: whole life, universal, and variable universal life.
Whole Life is the oldest of these policy types. It features guaranteed minimum premiums, guaranteed minimum interest rates credited to the cash value, and guaranteed death benefits payable at death. Whole life issued by a top rated company can still be a very good value even though it is not as flexible as the more recent policy types.
This policy type is a product of the computer age and is often referred to as Flexible Premium Adjustable Life. Due to the capacity of computers to conduct and maintain countless calculations, actuaries are able to expose the moving parts in a life insurance policy. Interest crediting rates, mortality costs, even expenses and premium taxes can be illustrated with ease. This allows for flexible premiums and face amounts, along with interest rates that reflect current portfolio yields. For the first time, policies could be designed to better fit changes in insurance needs and family budgets.
Universal life policies illustrate two interest rates, the “guaranteed minimum” and the “current” rate. The “minimum” is a contract guarantee while the “current” is credited as a product of the insurance company’s return on assets. The current rate is the basis for the “projected benefit” column in the illustration. It is important to understand that the cash values of the whole life and universal policies are invested as a general asset of the insurance company until surrendered or paid as a death benefit, therefore the financial strength of the company is very impotant.
Today the most popular feature of universal life is the guaranteed death benefit feature. Although this feature is only available from a handful of the strongest companies, it provides the lowest cost guaranteed benefit ever offered in a permanent life insurance policy. In addition, these guarantees can be structured for varying life expectancies.
Variable Life and Variable Universal Life
Variable policy cash values are not an asset of the insurance company and are managed as a separate asset in select funds much the same as a 401(k) portfolio is self managed. Although the insurance company is the custodian of the funds, the policy values are segregated from the general assets of the company and not subject to their creditors in the event of insolvency.
There is a critical difference however from managing a 401(k) allocation versus a variable life allocation. Variable Life policies have significantly higher expenses due to monthly insurance costs. As a general rule, monthly expenses of 2% to 4% or more are charged for insurance and administration costs. Consequently, a 10% return for 401(k) allocation could net one-half that in a VUL policy with a similar allocation. As a result, asset management is more difficult with variable policies than a typical 401(k) or an IRA. We recommend two rules of thumb for successful VUL ownership:
First, over fund the policy in the early years to maximize tax free growth inside the policy. Second, manage the portfolio as a sophisticated investor or retain a professional asset manager to assist you.
The obvious benefit of variable universal life is that assets can be grown in a most favorable tax environment, which, if successful, can reduce long term insurance costs or grow the tax free death benefit to larger amount than the original amount. However, there are no guarantees and the margin for investment failure is narrow. One must weigh the risk of investment results in variable life policy against the guarantees offered by competitive universal life policies.
How Much Insurance Do I Really Need?
In the vast array of information regarding life insurance there seems to be no one consistent way of determining how much you need. We believe client's should take part in determining what's necessary and understand the process rather than rely on internet 'calculators'. The following article was written by Brian P. Daley CLU. It was published in the Society of Financial Service Professionals' Life, Health & Disability newsletter, of which Mr. Daley is the editor.
Four Simple Steps
Determine the amount of annual after-tax income your survivors will require to maintain their current standard of living if you were to die today.
Subtract from that amount the annual after-tax income earned by your surviving spouse if your spouse plans to work outside of the home if you were to die today. The difference is the family's annual shortfall.
Divide the family's annual shortfall by 5 percent, as we assume that over the long term your survivors will be able to earn somewhere around 5 percent net after income taxes, transaction costs, and management fees on whatever cash they have available for investment after your death. (One may select 3 percent, 4 percent, or even 7 percent for that matter, but 5 percent is generally fair).
The resulting figure is the approximate amount of cash required, from whatever sources, at the time of your death to provide sufficient annual income without invading the principal until the eldest child is ready to begin college.
Adjust this amount to reflect your unique and specific circumstances.
Will the surviving spouse's career plans or income needs change significantly following your death?
Will your spouse be receiving any imminent inheritance or income from elderly parents or from another source?
Are the children's education costs already fully funded, or are they beyond school age? Is there a special needs child who will require lifetime care?
What is the likelihood and what are the probable financial consequences of remarriage?
How long will it be until the surviving spouse will have access to tax-qualified monies such as 401(k) assets?
Such factors can increase or decrease survivor's dependency upon income from the estate and, therefore, are appropriate for you to consider when estimating the amount of coverage required by your survivors.
An Example: Assume a survivor will require $100,000 of annual after-tax income and that the spouse does not work outside the home. Dividing $100,000 by 5% equals $2 million. Thus a principal of $2 million would be required to generate uninterrupted annual after-tax income of $100,000. Depending upon your age and circumstances, the principal might be comprised of qualified and/or non-qualified investments, partnership capital, trust funds, and any current group or personal life insurance proceeds. The difference, if any, between the $2 million and the total of these other monies is the amount that may be necessary to make up through the purchase of new individual life insurance.
Second Quarter 2020 Market Update
I’m happy to report that our active approach to management during the second quarter has helped dampen sudden bouts of market volatility while continuing to move accounts towards positive territory for the year.
Our newsletter this quarter focuses on the phases of the developing COVID Crisis and its economic and market impact. While we’re all sick of talking about the virus, the path of the virus and the economy remain inextricably linked. We do try our best to stay focused on the data and economic narrative.
Virus information such as cases, hospitalizations, or treatments will not be broadly covered in this note. We’re happy to share the sources we use to track those trends if you’re interested.
In the 2nd half of the year, the path of economic reopening, a potential waning appetite by fiscal authorities to continue their support, the escalation or de-escalation of trade wars, and extreme political positions will all play their part. In the face of these shifting tides, we try to stay as optimistic as possible while adhering to our risk management objectives.
As always, if you have any questions or concerns related to the market or our outlook, please let us know. We’re here to help.
The Anatomy of a Disaster
As I write this note, a thunderstorm is headed towards Kansas City. While the probability of being in the path of a tornado is relatively small, it’s unsurprisingly top of mind when a storm is upon you. Unfortunately, it just so happens that a powerful storm and a resulting disaster mesh well within the current market/economic narrative. After all, the hallmarks of a tornado are 1) they often arrive with little warning, and 2) are devastating when they hit a community head-on. Sound familiar?
The first stage of any disaster is Trauma. Of course, in a natural disaster, that trauma occurs in the form of lost property and lost life. Our current crisis was at the height of the Trauma Stage in March and April, and the breadth of damage to health and wellbeing on a global scale was previously unthinkable.
As an initial response to a traumatic event is mounted, the Rescue Phase begins. The Rescue Phase in our natural disaster example is very straightforward. Much like the healthcare and essential personnel response to the COVID Crisis, the rescue phase in a natural disaster puts the best of the human spirit on full display. The added rescue efforts needed in response to the virus came on the financial front. As we outlined in our 1st Quarter Newsletter, the fiscal and monetary responses were every bit as proactive and potent as the shutdown was devastating. Had the Congress and Federal Reserve not acted with such force, we’d likely now be in a situation of mass bankruptcy AND mass unemployment. Those bankruptcies would have made any attempt at returning the unemployed to work all but impossible.
The Recovery Stage is where we find out if/when our situation pre-trauma will again become a reality. Often after a powerful storm, there is a window of time where insurance and charity can help to rebuild/repair physical damage. The resulting jolt of economic activity can help return the community to a positive financial trajectory. On the other hand, a city without the wherewithal for a speedy rebuild will slowly become less and less attractive to current and prospective citizens. This concept of long-term damage is a genuine threat to the recovering community in our example, just as it is for our financial system. Scars from the Great Financial Crisis persist to this very day, in the form of both social and economic consequences.
Depending on where you look, there are continuing signs of all three phases of the crisis. As COVID cases and hospitalizations rise, our healthcare system remains on the brink of trauma. Our fiscal and monetary authorities continue to administer the potent medicine that has thus far kept us from financial calamity. Economic data are showing emerging signs of recovery. And financial markets seemingly alternate their focus between one of the three stages on a daily basis.
State of Play – Markets and the Data
In our previous newsletter, we lamented that the data was as shocking as it was useless. And absent a few very high-frequency datasets, that remains the case. Since this trauma/rescue/recovery cycle has only been a reality for about four months, the one month lag in most government data creates a situation where information is not descriptive of the current situation. Despite that potential timing disconnect, the developing trends do paint a picture of successes or failures to come.
Let’s start our chart review with the equity market. The collapse, bounce, and attempted recovery in the market has been one for the history books. Interestingly though, the participation in the rebound/recovery hasn’t been as broadly experienced as you might expect. Sectors of the market that rely on real economic activity such as Industrials, Financials, and Energy have badly lagged industries chasing secular trends such as Technology and Communications.
The market plunged 35% from Feb. 19th to Mar. 23rd and the prevailing fear was that many companies in the eye of the Coronavirus storm (hospitality, leisure, and transportation) would cease to exist. A cascading failure of businesses could have caused mass-unemployment and economic depression. Then came the rescues of the corporate and personal segments of the economy.
When you or I go to borrow, the interest rate we are offered is directly related to our ability to repay the debt. If it appears unlikely that we’ll be able to repay, we’ll be charged a higher rate (or we won’t be offered a loan at all). Companies are no different. The gauge for measuring this access/cost of financing is called a credit spread. A credit spread is simply the difference between the rate of interest a company can secure, versus a very safe alternative (US Treasury Bonds). A higher spread is a sign that companies are having a tough time raising capital at preferred rates.
As credit spreads soared, the Federal Reserve decided to act in a previously unthinkable way. They provided a backstop on Mar. 23rd in the form of an implicit guarantee of the entire corporate debt market (blue dotted line). Once credit markets unfroze, even the most troubled companies were able to access the cash they desperately needed to finance their dormant operations.
The legislation in the C.A.R.E.S. Act (and companion acts) provided fiscal stimulus in the form of direct cash infusions for businesses and citizens alike. The cash injections have thus far provided a cushion in the aggregate for personal income. You’ll note that even as unemployment has skyrocketed in the past three months, personal income has expanded.
The increase in personal income is not evenly distributed and could cause distortions longer-term. For now, these distortions will be tolerated so long as income is stable or expanding in the aggregate.
The best way to foster a robust recovery is simple; we need to get people back to work quickly. The current unemployment rate of 11.1% is absurdly high and poses a significant long-term risk to our consumer-led economy. Note that the highest unemployment rate seen in the Great Financial Crisis was 10.0%. The difference in this episode, of course, is that the recession is being caused by an exogenous and (hopefully) temporary event - not financial excesses and fraud.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes a monthly report that frames the condition of the United States labor market. During recessions, jobs reports tend to show increasing unemployment. During recoveries/expansions, they show job gains. The industry composition and status of this churn between employed/unemployed can tell us a lot about the trajectory of the overall economy.
The BLS classification of ‘Temporarily Unemployed’ refers to an unemployed person who either has a set date to return to their previous job or expects to return to their position within six months. If a person has lost their job and is actively searching for an entirely new job, they are classified as ‘Not Temporarily Unemployed.’
As you can guess, a great many American citizens who are currently unemployed view their situation as temporary. And that is a good thing. Keeping workers attached (even if loosely attached) to their former employers is a major legislative objective. Although that does assume that the companies from which they’ve departed truly intend to hire them back.
The lines above show the total number of unemployed Americans (17.7 million) as well as the current status of those people. The entirety of the roughly 7 million job gains since the peak in April has come from the pool of temporary workers. That makes perfect sense – businesses that were previously ordered to close are bringing back some of their staff.
The composition of the 17.7 million unemployed citizens is becoming a concern. The NOT temporarily unemployed classification (purple line) is continuing to rise at an accelerating rate, even as the total comes down. You’ll note that in the previous two recessions, the vast majority of the unemployed population was made up of non-temporarily unemployed, which again makes perfect sense. Most ‘normal’ recessions are caused by a shock to demand that results in businesses laying off workers. The concern here is that a prolonged period of high unemployment will eventually stunt consumer confidence, spending, and business revenues. That self-defeating cycle fits into the narrative that we’ve not yet actually experienced a ‘normal’ recession. A continued expansion of non-temporary unemployment would be a very troubling development for many economists.
In ordinary times, consumer confidence is one of the most influential sentiment measures. After all, about two-thirds of our Gross Domestic Product (economic output of our country) comes from consumption. As I’m sure you’d guess, consumers are not feeling great right now. Whether it’s a political, health, or financial concern, there are more than enough reasons for lack of comfort. On the other hand, as people go back to work, or receive additional fiscal support, this number will be a great way to track the road to recovery.
The following charts on retail sales give us two points of discussion. First, the transformation of personal income into business revenue is the lifeblood of our capitalist system, so it’s critical to have a grip on where we stand. Second, it’s a great way to illustrate how data can be used to lie straight to your face. First, let’s look at the year over year growth rate (May 2020 versus May 2019).
As expected, retail sales fell off a cliff in April as the economy was shuttered. The year over year decline moderated substantially in May but is still showing a dramatic 6.1% contraction.
The contrast of month over month data (May 2020 versus April 2020) shows a very logical result; April printed the worst month ever, and May experienced the best month ever. The cumulative effect of those two outliers is that retail sales are down 6.1% y/y. These incongruent reads on the same data will provide exploitive opportunities for both sides in the upcoming election. Please consume your economic data responsibly.
The final chart in our review is the terminus of the consumer economy express – corporate earnings.
S&P 500 companies will begin reporting their second-quarter results in about one week, and the numbers are expected to be dismal. However, commentary from management will likely be the main event. Analysts and investors will anxiously listen for indications of emerging trends as we enter the back half of the year. Those trends will offer hints as to when we may return to the peak index earnings level of 2019. While the spectrum of potential outcomes for the trajectory for earnings is wide, consensus estimates call for a full earnings recovery by at least 2022.