Mader & Shannon Wealth Management's independence means we are free to focus solely on the needs and objectives of our clients.
We are committed to providing value to our clients and have structured our entire organization around this concept.
We define value in portfolio management as achieving yield and growth objectives with as little risk as possible while minimizing transaction costs and taxes. Active Money Management - The goal of active money management is to protect the client from major downtrends resulting from the collapse of an overvalued market, and still allow the investor the opportunity to participate fully in the growth in value and income that the equity markets have historically provided.
Retaining an independent financial professional is as important for planning as it is for portfolio management. Mader Shannon has no commitment to any product or service that will in any way conflict with the best interests of our clients. Our services are designed to offer objective advice and set reasonable expectations. We take the time to educate clients on suitable financial solutions, carefully exploring risk and performance expectations.
At Kansas City's Mader & Shannon we define value in portfolio management as achieving yield and growth objectives with as little risk as possible while minimizing transaction costs and taxes.
The goal of active portfolio management is to protect the client from major downtrends resulting from the collapse of an overvalued market, and still allow the investor the opportunity to participate fully in the growth in value and income that the equity markets have historically provided.
Active Money Management
History demonstrates that although stock prices move erratically on an hourly, daily, or weekly basis, market averages experience long term trends with respect to intrinsic value. Understanding the state of the markets with respect to this persistent trend of overvaluation or undervaluation is the primary key to implementing an effective active management investment strategy.
The basic strategy of active money management is to reduce the risk associated with bull markets during periods of overvaluation, and to beopportunistic during bear markets that persist during periods of undervaluation. This combination enables clients to fully participate in the long-term capital growth the markets have historically provided.
Active portfolio management does not conflict with the concepts of long term investing. Most of our clients are in fact long term investors dependent on income and growth from their portfolios.
Take a tour of our Trading Room
At Mader and Shannon, we believe that an effectively implemented active management strategy can help clients achieve reliable upside participation while also providing excellent downside protection. By dampening the volatile swings in the market, our strategy seeks to provide both a sustainable long-term rate of return as well as peace of mind to our clients.
Strategy & Daily Routine
We take a top-down approach to asset allocation and a bottom-up approach to security selection. We monitor global economic indicators like GDP, employment, wage growth and a host of survey data to determine overall economic health. Interest rates, currency dynamics, and inflation are direct inputs to the valuation of markets, and must be incorporated to a comprehensive global evaluation. Finally, an appraisal of the fundamental health of broad indices like the S&P 500 aids in our assessment about the overvalued or undervalued state of markets.
From that baseline, we select securities that we believe provide the best risk-reward opportunity in the current economic environment. We seek to invest in companies that have good fundamental prospects and are, in our opinion, undervalued. Company-level research centers around earnings and revenue growth, valuation multiples, cash flows, and balance sheet health. Our investment universe consists only of highly liquid, exchange-traded securities.
Because we are an active manager, our outlook and positioning are flexible and dynamic. The only responsible way to make investment decisions is to base them on the most up-to-date and accurate information available. Our task each day is to gather market-related news and data, use it to develop an investment thesis, and then decide whether our current portfolio is ideally suited to perform in a given market environment. Such a task requires discipline, and over the years we’ve developed a daily routine that helps us accumulate and digest an unrelenting supply of information.
The Kansas City Trading Room opens an hour and a half before the US exchanges each morning. By that time, we are already up to date on the developments in Asian markets overnight, how the European markets are trading, and where the U.S. indices are expected to open.
Our first task on site is to download the previous day’s transaction and position data from our custodian. Once imported into our portfolio management accounting platform, we can generate performance and view holdings at the firm, strategy, and client levels. The integration of the accounting platform with our Bloomberg and Level-2 quoting systems allows us to aggregate our discretionary assets and constantly monitor them on a tick-by-tick basis, each and every day.
By 8:00, our portfolio management team has scanned our various research platforms for developments on current or prospective holdings. We then discuss our findings and develop our expectations for the coming trading session. If any team member believes a portfolio change is needed, that too is discussed, and before the opening bell rings, we have a plan for the day. From the opening bell, until the market closes at 3:00, the Trading Room constantly monitors holdings and the markets, regularly meeting throughout the day to discuss ideas and potential adjustments.
The Mader & Shannon trading room operation is an intense environment staffed by dedicated professionals who relish the daily opportunity to help clients achieve their financial goals.
As a wholly transparent money manager, we regularly host current and prospective clients in the trading room for market reviews and strategy orientations.
Simply put, wealth management is the process of a team of experts providing the highest quality of financial products and services to improve the financial health of client. In other words, it is the delivery of a full range of services tailored to solve for a specific financial objective or goal.
Wealth management incorporates a full suite of services that include financial planning, portfolio management, tax services, retirement planning, and estate planning. This provides a holistic approach allowing each scenario to be analyzed from every angle to achieve a successful outcome.
Typically, a wealth manager acts in a consultative manner and is focused solely on the client’s behalf. A wealth manager should be a fiduciary, working only with the client’s best interest in mind. Upholding the standard of a fiduciary in the financial service industry must include putting a clients’ interests before your own, acting in good faith and providing all relevant facts to clients, remaining free of conflicts of interest, and ensuring the accuracy of advice given.
Accomplished wealth managers should also hold credentials within the industry such as Certified Financial Planner (CFP®), Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), and Charter Financial Analyst (CFA®). The criteria that one must meet to hold these designations demonstrates not only their competency but their commitment in that respective field.
Here at Mader Shannon, we believe it is crucial to understand our clients and what is important to them. The services we provide are structured around our client’s investment objectives and tolerance for risk. We take the time to not only identify but understand our client’s aspirations. We then analyze the information and engage other professionals when appropriate to develop suitable recommendations. Our work is far more comprehensive than simply providing investment advice.
Our services are designed to offer objective advice and set reasonable expectations. We educate our clients on the suitability of our financial solutions, carefully exploring risk and performance expectations.
Typically, when a wealth manager acts in a consultative manner and is focused solely on the client’s behalf they are considered a fiduciary financial advisor. A fiduciary is a person or legal entity that has the power and responsibility of acting for another in situations requiring total trust, good faith and honesty.
Acting as a fiduciary has a very important meaning within the financial services industry. Much has been debated and written as the industry struggles with a self-imposed standard of care. It is often assumed that when choosing a financial advisor, they are all required to do what’s in the client’s best interest, but that is not the case. There are those that are held to a higher standard, and those that are not.
A fiduciary financial advisor is an investment professional who is licensed with the SEC or a state regulator and who are legally required to put their clients’ interests before their own. Having a fiduciary duty to your client should eliminate conflicts of interest and theoretically make a fiduciary’s advice more trustworthy. It is Mader Shannon’s obligation to uphold this standard as an SEC registered RIA (Registered Investment Advisor).
In addition to regulatory bodies requiring a higher standard of care, all the principals at Mader Shannon hold designations that, within their Code of Ethics, require that they adhere to or go beyond the fiduciary standard of care. Fiduciary financial advisor’s often hold credentials within the industry such as Certified Financial Planner (CFP®), Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), and Charter Financial Analyst (CFA®) all in which require that professionals act within this standard.
The luxury of being able to maintain our independence translates into a better relationship with our clients. Being able to think and act strategically in the interest of clients and not beholden to a parent company allows Mader Shannon to offer a more fiduciary centric service. Being a fiduciary financial advisor affords our clients a higher level of transparency in the way we provide our service, and perhaps more importantly, in how we are compensated for our service.
The following articles provide additional information on fiduciary standards within the industry as well as questions to ask and things to look for when choosing a financial advisor.
Retaining an independent financial professional is as important for planning as it is for asset management. Mader Shannon has no commitment to any product or service that will in any way conflict with the best interests of our clients.
Our services are designed to offer objective advice and set reasonable expectations. We take the time to educate clients on suitable financial solutions, carefully exploring risk and performance expectations
Our Planning Services
We provide the following services for helping clients achieve their financial goals:
Comprehensive Financial Planning
Complete Portfolio Analysis/Review
Company 401k Plans
529 and Education IRAs
Qualified Plan Rollovers
Retirement Cash Flow Planning and Projections
Why an Independent Agent?
There are two types of licensed agents in the life and health insurance industry: a “captive agent” representing one company and an “independent agent” representing multiple companies. Independent agents are also commonly referred to as “brokers”. Captive agents are limited to the products offered by their company while independent agents can select from countless products to fit a clients needs. Obviously, an independent agent is most often going to offer more suitable solutions.
In addition to a professionals independent status, it is important the representive be licensed to offer advice on securities, tax planning, estate planning, to tailor the most suitable solutions. This becomes important for two reasons. Any good financial plan starts with a careful assessment of a person’s objectives, income, assets, and potential inheritance. Unfortunately most insurance agents are not licensed, trained, or qualified to do financial planning, instead they are trained to be transaction driven for commissions rather than driven by the customer's best interest. Sales activity, with little regard for suitability and actual customer objectives, is counter productive and gives the industry a bad name.
A true independent financial planner must be licensed and have advanced training in many disciplines. Unfortunately, most insurance agents/financial advisors are only licensed to sell insurance, annuities, and mutual funds. Such limitation would make comprehensive planning difficult and expensive compared to a more comprehensive approach by an independent financial planner who works in a fiduciary capacity, or solely in the clients best interest. Such a professional is focused on plan design, researching suitable solutions, and performance, versus being product and transaction driven.
Mader & Shannon Wealth Management has always worked as a fiduciary putting our client’s needs first at all times.
Life Insurance As An Asset and/or Retirement Supplement?
In the current environment of low interest rates and bond yields one might ask, “How about life insurance as safe money investment?” For 99% of the 800 plus insurance companies a reliable investment return is not likely. However, a few top rated companies have produced internal rates of return (IRR) in the plus 2% range ten years out and plus 3% range 20 years out.
These returns won’t compete with the S&P 500, but keep in mind, there is a death benefit value permanently attached to this investment. Therefore, one can own a life insurance contract that is an asset as a conservative investment and at the same time provide a significant death benefit. In addition, properly managed, this asset can work favorably as a supplement to retirement.
To sustain a suitable outcome using this strategy working with a professional independent agent is a necessity for a number of reasons. Insurance policies are long term, complex legal contracts with both guaranteed and non-guaranteed provisions which you would want fully disclosed and understood. You must pick an insurance company that has the financial strength and history of supporting a contract of this type. In addition, you want to thoroughly understand the taxation of life insurance proceeds since the are different from other investments.
Like most successful investments, this investment requires management by a knowledgeable owner and a qualified professional. In this case, an insurance professional and a qualified investment advisor should be utilized for the life of the contract. To summarize, a well designed and managed life insurance contract, issued by a top rated company, can serve as key building block to a sound financial plan.
Types of Insurance
Term Insurance vs. Permanent
There are two basic forms of life insurance, term and permanent policies. Each one breaks down into subcategories based on different options designed to meet the needs of the consumer.
Term Life Insurance
As the name implies, term life insurance is issued for a specific period of time from one year to age 100. The purpose of term insurance is to cover a need within the issue period such as protecting an income stream while raising a family, or to pay off a mortgage or business debt in the event of an untimely death. Some term insurance policies offer a guaranteed conversion feature. This policy provision guarantees that the policy owner can convert the policy to a permanent insurance policy at the same underwriting status as assigned to the term policy. Consequently, term insurance can be utilized to fulfill a current insurance need at a low cost until the need for insurance diminishes or cash flow is available for permanent insurance.
Permanent Life Insurance
Permanent life insurance is designed and priced to pay a death benefit or be surrendered for the cash value when the insurance is no longer needed. There are three types of permanent life insurance: whole life, universal, and variable universal life.
Whole Life is the oldest of these policy types. It features guaranteed minimum premiums, guaranteed minimum interest rates credited to the cash value, and guaranteed death benefits payable at death. Whole life issued by a top rated company can still be a very good value even though it is not as flexible as the more recent policy types.
This policy type is a product of the computer age and is often referred to as Flexible Premium Adjustable Life. Due to the capacity of computers to conduct and maintain countless calculations, actuaries are able to expose the moving parts in a life insurance policy. Interest crediting rates, mortality costs, even expenses and premium taxes can be illustrated with ease. This allows for flexible premiums and face amounts, along with interest rates that reflect current portfolio yields. For the first time, policies could be designed to better fit changes in insurance needs and family budgets.
Universal life policies illustrate two interest rates, the “guaranteed minimum” and the “current” rate. The “minimum” is a contract guarantee while the “current” is credited as a product of the insurance company’s return on assets. The current rate is the basis for the “projected benefit” column in the illustration. It is important to understand that the cash values of the whole life and universal policies are invested as a general asset of the insurance company until surrendered or paid as a death benefit, therefore the financial strength of the company is very impotant.
Today the most popular feature of universal life is the guaranteed death benefit feature. Although this feature is only available from a handful of the strongest companies, it provides the lowest cost guaranteed benefit ever offered in a permanent life insurance policy. In addition, these guarantees can be structured for varying life expectancies.
Variable Life and Variable Universal Life
Variable policy cash values are not an asset of the insurance company and are managed as a separate asset in select funds much the same as a 401(k) portfolio is self managed. Although the insurance company is the custodian of the funds, the policy values are segregated from the general assets of the company and not subject to their creditors in the event of insolvency.
There is a critical difference however from managing a 401(k) allocation versus a variable life allocation. Variable Life policies have significantly higher expenses due to monthly insurance costs. As a general rule, monthly expenses of 2% to 4% or more are charged for insurance and administration costs. Consequently, a 10% return for 401(k) allocation could net one-half that in a VUL policy with a similar allocation. As a result, asset management is more difficult with variable policies than a typical 401(k) or an IRA. We recommend two rules of thumb for successful VUL ownership:
First, over fund the policy in the early years to maximize tax free growth inside the policy. Second, manage the portfolio as a sophisticated investor or retain a professional asset manager to assist you.
The obvious benefit of variable universal life is that assets can be grown in a most favorable tax environment, which, if successful, can reduce long term insurance costs or grow the tax free death benefit to larger amount than the original amount. However, there are no guarantees and the margin for investment failure is narrow. One must weigh the risk of investment results in variable life policy against the guarantees offered by competitive universal life policies.
How Much Insurance Do I Really Need?
In the vast array of information regarding life insurance there seems to be no one consistent way of determining how much you need. We believe client's should take part in determining what's necessary and understand the process rather than rely on internet 'calculators'. The following article was written by Brian P. Daley CLU. It was published in the Society of Financial Service Professionals' Life, Health & Disability newsletter, of which Mr. Daley is the editor.
Four Simple Steps
Determine the amount of annual after-tax income your survivors will require to maintain their current standard of living if you were to die today.
Subtract from that amount the annual after-tax income earned by your surviving spouse if your spouse plans to work outside of the home if you were to die today. The difference is the family's annual shortfall.
Divide the family's annual shortfall by 5 percent, as we assume that over the long term your survivors will be able to earn somewhere around 5 percent net after income taxes, transaction costs, and management fees on whatever cash they have available for investment after your death. (One may select 3 percent, 4 percent, or even 7 percent for that matter, but 5 percent is generally fair).
The resulting figure is the approximate amount of cash required, from whatever sources, at the time of your death to provide sufficient annual income without invading the principal until the eldest child is ready to begin college.
Adjust this amount to reflect your unique and specific circumstances.
Will the surviving spouse's career plans or income needs change significantly following your death?
Will your spouse be receiving any imminent inheritance or income from elderly parents or from another source?
Are the children's education costs already fully funded, or are they beyond school age? Is there a special needs child who will require lifetime care?
What is the likelihood and what are the probable financial consequences of remarriage?
How long will it be until the surviving spouse will have access to tax-qualified monies such as 401(k) assets?
Such factors can increase or decrease survivor's dependency upon income from the estate and, therefore, are appropriate for you to consider when estimating the amount of coverage required by your survivors.
An Example: Assume a survivor will require $100,000 of annual after-tax income and that the spouse does not work outside the home. Dividing $100,000 by 5% equals $2 million. Thus a principal of $2 million would be required to generate uninterrupted annual after-tax income of $100,000. Depending upon your age and circumstances, the principal might be comprised of qualified and/or non-qualified investments, partnership capital, trust funds, and any current group or personal life insurance proceeds. The difference, if any, between the $2 million and the total of these other monies is the amount that may be necessary to make up through the purchase of new individual life insurance.
Mader & Shannon Offers 529 College Savings Plan Management Through TDAmeritrade
Mader & Shannon manages 529 College Savings plans on the TDAmeritrade platform. The plans are sponsored by the State of Nebraska and Union Bank & Trust Company serves as the Program Manager.
The benefits for our clients are as follows:
Mader & Shannon can continuously monitor the plans and make allocation changes periodically through primarily Vanguard funds (currently the IRS restricts changes to twice a year).
Tax parity laws in some states (including Missouri and Kansas) make the state tax deductions available even though the plan is in Nebraska.
Eligibility for tax-free withdrawals for qualified higher-education expenses applies to any nationally accredited school, not just those in Nebraska.
Contact Bret Guillaume at 816.751.0575 or email@example.com to open an account or transfer an existing 529 balance. For more information on College Savings Plans visit www.collegesavings.org
The Rocket Ship Economy
Today (7/16/2019) marks the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 Launch. The Apollo program employed the services of the most powerful machine ever built – The Saturn V Rocket. This massive vehicle stood 363 feet tall and weighed over 6 million pounds. The express intent for designing such a craft was to deliver three lucky (or insane) crew members into lunar orbit. By the conclusion of the Apollo program in 1975, the Saturn V successfully delivered 10 crews into space. Six of those ten missions included moon landings, and all of them ended with a safe return to earth for the crew. The Saturn V rocket was clearly a very successful tool in achieving President Kennedy’s 1962 goal of placing a man on the moon.
Just as the Saturn V was a tool for delivering astronauts to the moon, the economy can be thought of as the principal tool for delivering a steadily improving standard of living to society. Although, when judging economic success there are far fewer total failures or absolute triumphs.
The title of this newsletter originates from statements by President Trump a few weeks ago. He lamented that were it not for the overly restrictive interest rate policy of Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve, we might be experiencing a ‘Rocketship Economy.’
For this quarter’s newsletter we will discuss the components that might facilitate or impede what could be described as a ‘Rocketship Economy.’
In Brief – Global Central Banks are typically in one of three stances: Restrictive (higher rates), Neutral, or Accommodative (lower rates). Over the past 12 months, market expectations have reversed from a panicked perception of restrictive policy to a sense of inevitable accommodation. The hope is that lower short-term rates will feed through in a positive way to the underlying economy. But the catch-22 remains: If accommodative monetary policy is in response to weakening economic growth, should we unquestionably cheer accommodative policy? Put another way - Have you ever hoped for a cold so you might get to take some Robitussin?
Over the past 8 months, the outlook for monetary policy in the United States has experienced the largest shift in expectations since the Taper Tantrum of 2013. In October ’18, the expectation and messaging from the Fed was for a continuation of the rate hike program that began in 2015. Since then, growth has deteriorated, and the Fed is now messaging a rate cut. The Fed funds chart below shows the trajectory of short-term rate policy over the past 60 years. You’ll notice that falling short term rates typically occur in response to recessions (shaded areas).
The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) continue to implement the unprecedented policy of negative interest rates. And as of today, $12,400,000,000,000 worth of fixed income instruments carry a negative interest rate. Negative interest rates are the equivalent of you paying me to cut my hair, they aren’t supposed to make intuitive sense. But they do show the degree to which central banks are successfully suppressing interest rates.
After a brief period of synchronized global growth and attempted policy normalization, global central banks have returned to a very accommodative footing. The lower rate outlook has served as a security blanket for markets, but the fundamental impact will take time to filter through to the data.
Earnings & The Economy
In Brief – Corporate earnings enjoyed a tax-cut and deregulation-fueled boom throughout 2017 and most of 2018. Since September of 2018, earnings expectations have turned decidedly less exuberant and are now expected to be unchanged or even slightly negative in 2019. Since corporate earnings are derived from both domestic and foreign sources, they are generally a good proxy for overall global growth. That global growth picture is dominated by two opposing themes: 1) The US Consumer is as strong as ever and 2) The global manufacturing/industrial economy is stagnant at best, and recessionary at worst.
The global economic and corporate earnings picture can be summed up in an outline of The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.
The Good – The US Consumer remains the strongest and most reliable force in the economic picture. People have jobs, are seeing larger paychecks, and are spending. Also, various reads of consumer confidence/comfort have recently hit cycle highs.
The Bad – Capital spending and various measures of CEO/business confidence are lackluster. These gauges of business sentiment are generally linked to the uncertainty cast by unpredictable trade policy.
The Ugly – Global manufacturing has been a major source of weakness. We use the Global Purchasing Managers (PMI) index to judge the trajectory of manufacturing. You’ll note the trend has been substantially negative since January of 2018 and the recent reading below 50 signals a contraction.
When you put all the pieces together, the US Economy is very close to firing on all cylinders. In the chart below, JP Morgan rates the ‘temperature’ of 11 areas of our domestic economy. A ‘hot’ reading indicates a positive and/or improving data set.
If it weren’t for global weakness and a lack of business confidence, you would likely see 8 of 11 indicators in the ‘hot’ classification. Instead, what we are left with is a very mixed picture.
In Brief: Government spending is increasing, while receipts have decreased relative to the increasing taxable base. That is the textbook definition of accommodative fiscal policy. Looking forward, there appears to be little political will for additional programs such as infrastructure or a relaxation of tax rates for individuals.
When evaluating fiscal policy, it is important to take both spending (outlays) as well as income (receipts) into account. Any uptick in outlays represents additional gov’t spending, while a dip in receipts represents either a reduction in the taxable base (recession), or a cut in the tax rate for individuals or corporations. The chart below shows the aggregate amount of US gov’t outlays in red, and receipts in blue.
Receipts have been stagnant over the past 3 years, while outlays continue to set new highs. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 helped keep revenues from rising, while consistently increasing social and defense spending have kept upward pressure on outlays.
Going forward, we see very little political will to cut spending levels in the aggregate, or meaningfully adjust tax rates. The major risk in this late stage of the expansion is that any sort of economic slowdown will likely exacerbate an already stretched deficit spending situation. Then again, major shifts in fiscal policy tend to come 1-2 years after presidential elections… and we just so happen to have one of those in a mere 476 days.
The potential negative impact of gov’t regulation and anti-trust actions on ‘Big Tech’ could also be included in this section. But we’ll save that for a future note.
Trade and Geopolitics
In Brief – Restrictive global trade policies are by far the biggest obstacle to a so called ‘Rocketship Economy.’ Increased friction in global supply chains pressures corporate margins, while uncertainty about the trajectory of trade policy delays business investment and capital spending. We are currently in a period of increased nationalism and brinkmanship. This shift away from globalism has been tolerated by markets because it is seen as a means to realizing a more level playing field for our companies. If that objective is met, and free-trade proliferates globally – that would be a very good thing. In the interim, uncertainty persists.
One year ago, the US placed a 10% tariff (tax) rate on over $200 billion in imported goods from China. At that time, we were in the process of producing our 2Q2018 newsletter, where we noted that in relation to global aggregate trade volumes, the effective tariff of $21 billion/year was unlikely to derail global commerce.
Analyzing the impact of any tariff policy comes down to three basic components: 1) Tariff rate as a percent 2) the size and composition of the goods that will be subjected to the rate and 3) the duration for which the rate will be applied. If any one of these components is immaterial, then the policy won’t have much bite.
After a full year of tariffs, the US Gov’t has collected roughly $21 billion in duties. While that sounds substantial, it is less than 1% of the total value of all goods imported by the US ($2.1 trillion). Additionally, a majority of that $21B was collected on intermediate goods.
Intermediate goods are used to create the finished goods that are eventually sold to end consumers. When these inputs cost more, companies must decide to either absorb that cost, or pass it along to consumers in the form of higher prices. Based on recent reads on corporate margins and inflation, it appears that companies, on balance, have decided to absorb these incremental costs.
The often-threatened increase in the tariff rate (25%) and base (all Chinese goods imported by US) would disproportionately target consumption and capital goods. Tariffs on that scale would be much harder for companies to absorb and would likely jeopardize the strength of the US consumer that we noted above. For that reason, heightened rhetoric on this front must be taken seriously.
If business and consumer spending are the fuel that powers our potential ‘Rocketship Economy,’ monetary and fiscal policy are the weather and the launch conditions. While we agree with the President that growth is being held back from its potential, we would not place 100% of the blame on Mr. Powell. Sure, monetary policy could be more accommodative. But by historical standards, the current stance of monetary policy is exceptionally accommodative, especially in the 10th year of an expansion. In our opinion, as long as trade policy remains a dark cloud on the horizon, it will be tough for the global economy to lift off.